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I do realize that this is probably not the best venue to ask questions like this, but there are some people here whose opinions and replies I value.

I just got an email back from my congresswoman. One of the things her email had in it was:
In addition, this legislation is fully paid for and will cut the deficit by $143 billion over the next ten years, and $1.2 trillion in the following ten years.
So how is this legislation fully paid for?
 

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http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/78xx/doc7837/03-05-Uncertain.pdf

They are actually calculated estimations, not mere wild assumptions. And this document tells a bit about how they come up with these estimations. However, it is correct that there is a wide range of variables and that estimates are often off from their projections. It is a non-partisan office that creates budget projections for both parties.
 

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ramcharger_heaven said:
They are actually calculated estimations, not mere wild assumptions.
no wild assumptions huh? have you read any of the estimate? They are saying that an added tax on medical devices, will not lower the sales, but will increase the government coffers by 2 billion dollars next year, and 14 billion in the year 2014. Do you really think people and insurances can afford to buy those devices at the same rate they are now, at an extra cost of 14 billion dollars? yet at the same time, they are requiring medicare to reuse durable medical devices (crutches, wheelchairs, CPAP machines, arm braces, ect), instead of purchasing new one all the time. do you not think insurance companies will follow suit, and do the same, to avoid the previous mentioned tax?

that is just one area that I'm familiar with, that I see a major problem with their estimating, and it can throw off their estimate by 22 billion over the first 10 years alone.

Look through the tables at how many of their estimates are at no cost to the government, and ask yourself how realistic that really is, you seem to have some smarts, just get away from your preconceived notions, and open up your mind, and read with an open mind.
 

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I bet you give your tax guy nightmares  ;D

Anyways, I did not see the section on the added tax you are refering to...if you could provide me with some documentation on it, I'd be happy to check it out.

My point was, that it is an educated estimation.  Everyone knows it's probably off by a bunch, but how do any of us know any better?

Also, neither one of us knows the process in which they will accomplish alot of this stuff.  It's quite possible that that the first couple years will need big spending in order to change it, but then a substantial savings will be seen. 

But the point is, that there is an actual process that is gone through to come up with these projections.  Misinformation is what brings about much of the concern on these things.
 
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If I turned in a roi with that much speculation I would be laughed and probably told to clean out my desk. Everything is about to get real expensive real quick. Just remember if a companies cost go up those cost get passed to the consumer. Those of you carrying large amounts of debt are really going to feel this one.
 
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Does anyone  here have 2 part time just to make ends meet?
Check out pages 146, and 149-150
Employers with part time employees who decline coverage must pay a surtax of 8% of their average employees pay into "the exchange." Looks like the people that this is supposed to help is going to cost them some cash.
 

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ramcharger_heaven said:
I bet you give your tax guy nightmares ;D
I do my own, never had a problem either.

ramcharger_heaven said:
Anyways, I did not see the section on the added tax you are refering to...if you could provide me with some documentation on it, I'd be happy to check it out.
listed on the tables on page 19, under
Other Provisions
Fees on Certain Manufacturers
and Insurers

here is a quick article I goggled up for you, I see they have pushed off the start date to 2013.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/03/27/MNEL1CM039.DTL

ramcharger_heaven said:
My point was, that it is an educated estimation. Everyone knows it's probably off by a bunch, but how do any of us know any better?
Any one really trying to give a honest report, can do better blindfolded.

ramcharger_heaven said:
Also, neither one of us knows the process in which they will accomplish alot of this stuff. It's quite possible that that the first couple years will need big spending in order to change it, but then a substantial savings will be seen.
Its not rocket science stuff. Just open your mind and read.

ramcharger_heaven said:
But the point is, that there is an actual process that is gone through to come up with these projections. Misinformation is what brings about much of the concern on these things.
Misinformation is also what brings miss trust. When Senators get on TV, and make up statements that are blatantly false, we tend to lose faith in them. Just the idea of them voting on something that they or their staff have not ever had the time to read, nauseates me. Like I stated before, if this bill was any good, there would have never been any need for arm twisting, and back door deals to get votes.

want to see something closer to real health reform, read this. (don't look at the date, it is a reprint of an older article)

Colorado already leading way on health reform

Its reform centered on the patient, not on getting big corporations/ insurance companies richer. Its centered on the whole patient as a person, not just patching them up, and out the door.
unfortunately, the economy has dried up the donations used to keep several of the clinics open, and several have closed their doors recently.

our Tax dollars could have been better spent by helping clinics, and hospitals that have good working relationships with the communities, then by helping foreign drug companies.

A friend of mine from Pa, a long term dialysis patient, came out here last fall. He had scheduled 3 of his dialysis treatments while he was here. He learned more about his condition, during those 3 treatments, and a special class they set up for him, then he did in five years in pa.
 

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Web Wheeler said:
Does anyone here have 2 part time just to make ends meet?
Check out pages 146, and 149-150
Employers with part time employees who decline coverage must pay a surtax of 8% of their average employees pay into "the exchange." Looks like the people that this is supposed to help is going to cost them some cash.
That may actually end up being a good thing, many companies, like the walmart, for one, that I know of, have pretty much gotten rid of full time employees, and replaced them with part timers.
 

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http://www.massdevice.com/news/update-device-makers-react-healthcare-reform-bills-excise-tax

Here is another article I found, and basically most companies don't know themselves how bad they'll be affected. But they are also posting some pretty big profits, so I don't think it's going to be too bad.

As far as CBO's projections...what do you think needs to be done? You say any blindfolded idiot can do a better job, then how can you really trust anyone? Repubs use the same system, are you going to call horseshit on all projections? I'm just trying to be fair by saying the same system is used for both sides...however screwed up their calculations may be.

I agree, some things make sense and others don't. Some seem rather optimistic. I was checking out hype on the tax for tanning. I think the income on the tax is probably high, but then again...how many Barbie's are actually going to stop tanning because it costs 10% more? I don't really know.
 
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SuperBurban said:
That may actually end up being a good thing, many companies, like the walmart, for one, that I know of, have pretty much gotten rid of full time employees, and replaced them with part timers.
This won't really hurt the Walmarts of the world but it will have an impact on the mom and pop shops. Of course I guess those people can now go work at home depot or something. Of course if cost get to be too much that may encourage more companies to move off shore.

..how many Barbie's are actually going to stop tanning because it costs 10% more?
It's not just the 10% for tanning. It will also be the 10% for food, the 10% percent for fuel, 10% for clothes etc. Don't forget that we will also see about 12 million people added when they decide to give citizenship to the people that are in this county illegally. I am certain the CBO didn't account for those folks.
 

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ramcharger_heaven said:
http://www.massdevice.com/news/update-device-makers-react-healthcare-reform-bills-excise-tax

Here is another article I found, and basically most companies don't know themselves how bad they'll be affected. But they are also posting some pretty big profits, so I don't think it's going to be too bad.
how about this one, from your link.

http://www.massdevice.com/blogs/massdevice/analysis-big-players-bear-brunt-medical-device-tax

by their analysts, and using last years figures, the tax would have meant a loss to many of the smaller companies. so of course the larger companies will like something that keeps the small guy out of the playing field.

ramcharger_heaven said:
As far as CBO's projections...what do you think needs to be done? You say any blindfolded idiot can do a better job, then how can you really trust anyone? Repubs use the same system, are you going to call horseshit on all projections? I'm just trying to be fair by saying the same system is used for both sides...however screwed up their calculations may be.
how about an open government, like the one obama promised us. post the bill, let the experts give their predictions, then the representatives can do what they do best, and haggle over changes.

there was no urgent deadline for this, there is no more lives saved in 2011, then supposedly died in 2010.
where is the health care reform? In see insurance reform, medicare changes, ect

oh wait, here it is:
Prevention/Wellness

* Improve prevention by covering only proven preventive services and eliminating cost-sharing for preventive services in Medicare; increase Medicare payments for certain preventive services to 100% of actual charges or fee schedule rates. For states that provide Medicaid coverage for and remove cost-sharing for preventive services recommended by the US Preventive Services Task Force and recommended immunizations, provide a one percentage point increase in the FMAP for these services.
* Provide Medicare beneficiaries access to a comprehensive health risk assessment and creation of a personalized prevention plan and provide incentives to Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries to complete behavior modification programs.
* Provide grants for up to five years to small employers that establish wellness programs.
* Establish the National Prevention, Health Promotion and Public Health Council to develop a national strategy to improve the nation's health.
* Require chain restaurants and food sold from vending machines to disclose the nutritional content of each item.


yep, more awareness/ assessment programs, they are going to let the fat people know they are fat.

there was no need for a shotgun approach.

ramcharger_heaven said:
I agree, some things make sense and others don't. Some seem rather optimistic. I was checking out hype on the tax for tanning. I think the income on the tax is probably high, but then again...how many Barbie's are actually going to stop tanning because it costs 10% more? I don't really know.
if you look at it piece by piece, it is easy to say " but all those 10% add other fees, add up quick. where do you think that $143 billion is coming from? You got it, the middle class & some upper class tax payers pocket. that $143 billion, is after expenses (Ie paying for the improved medical for the poor. the new school health programs, the extra medicare payments for LA), and is only dollars that effect the government budget. add in the cost for all these tanning companies, and everyone else effected, to collect, record, and pass on those taxes.

Web Wheeler said:
Everything is about to get real expensive real quick. Just remember if a companies cost go up those cost get passed to the consumer. Those of you carrying large amounts of debt are really going to feel this one.
thats right.

how is the government saving $143 billion,
paying less to the healthcare industry for medicaid/medicare
adding taxes to hospitals
adding taxes to medical devices.
penalties for the uninsured/ and penalty payments by employers $14 & $19 billion for the year 2019

don't forget, to save that $143B, they have to take in much much more.

Web Wheeler said:
Everything is about to get real expensive real quick. Just remember if a companies cost go up those cost get passed to the consumer. Those of you carrying large amounts of debt are really going to feel this one.
The cbo estimate does not cover the extra 50,000 projected to be hired by the IRS to enforce this law.
 

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Web Wheeler said:
Don't forget that we will also see about 12 million people added when they decide to give citizenship to the people that are in this county illegally. I am certain the CBO didn't account for those folks.
Good. 12 million more people to pay taxes. ;D
 

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Web Wheeler said:
This won't really hurt the Walmarts of the world but it will have an impact on the mom and pop shops. Of course I guess those people can now go work at home depot or something. Of course if cost get to be too much that may encourage more companies to move off shore.
no, it won't hurt them, but hopefully it will strongly encourage them to go back to full time workers, instead of lots of no benefit part timers. The local store here, where my sister used to work at, is over 75% part timers now, take out the management, and that is probably close to 95%.
 

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s ǝoɾ said:
Good. 12 million more people to pay taxes. ;D
collect welfare, and work on a cash only basis, nothing reported.
 

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s ǝoɾ said:
See previous thread opinions about the flat sales tax. ;)
that and the proper mix of import/tariff taxes to even out the playing field for US companies, and discourage moving out of country. {cool}

as long as all these other taxes are repealed, its a night mare for corporations to keep track of what to collect, and who to pay it to.
 

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SuperBurban said:
that and the proper mix of import/tariff taxes to even out the playing field for US companies, and discourage moving out of country. {cool}
I have been mulling that over in my noggin trying to imagine various outcomes and benefits/draw backs.

That idea popped into my head as well.

One potential issue I see is angering "the boss", since we are in no position to do what would be considered waging economic warfare.

China does much of the exporting, and they are also where many operations get moved to. Obviously they would be impacted the most. Any consequence to that? Well I could imagine an angry china either demanding full and prompt payment of debt or an attempt to "repo" or flooding the market with those debt promise notes they have.

Between a rock and a hard place.

Of course if the answers were easy and clear, I'm sure something would have been done, the gov't would jump at the opportunity to collect a new tax.
 

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I know it would not be easy. its one of those things where back in the 50's where people looked at it, "That if it does not work, we can always put it back in place" .  (Kinda like some people say with the health care bill "we can always change it later, if it don't work out).

But something needs to be done, just look at the auto parts industry. China buys most of our scrap steel, and then sells it back to in the form of parts. but something is obviously wrong, when you can go down to the store, and buy a rotor, or a caliper at less then its weight in scrap steel.

As a country, we need to get back to looking out for our own first, then be a good neighbor to the rest of the world.
 

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SuperBurban said:
As a country, we need to get back to looking out for our own first, then be a good neighbor to the rest of the world.
Funny, because I agree. On a smaller scale, if people were interested in "taking care of their own first" half of these programs would not have a need to exist in the 1st place.

No, there are some things you cannot just "put back". If china dumps the debt, you, me, everyone you know, will be eating dirt. Kind of brings the world to a halt.

Of course that is not in their best interest either, so maybe it wouldn't be a total dump, no turning back, over night.
 
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